Monday, June 28, 2004
Bremer has left the Building
Juan Cole speculates on the reasoning behind the early transfer of sovereignty and Bremer's quick exit:
Cole's theory makes sense to me, but a major attack in the Green Zone would be hard, considering how fortified/protected the area is. There have been random mortar attacks in the Zone, and car bombs just outside the area, but a major attack that would do major damage, would have to be elaborate and planned to cause much psychological damage to the new Iraqi Government. (i.e. Vietcong attack on the U.S. Embassy, during the Tet Offensive)
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It is hard to interpret this move as anything but a precipitous flight. It is just speculation on my part, but I suspect that the Americans must have developed intelligence that there might be a major strike on the Coalition Provisional Headquarters on Wednesday if a formal ceremony were held to mark a transfer of sovereignty. Since the US military is so weak in Iraq and appears to have poor intelligence on the guerrilla insurgency, the Bush administration could not take the chance that a major bombing or other attack would mar the ceremony.
The surprise move will throw off all the major news organizations, which were planning intensive coverage of the ceremonies originally planned for Wednesday.
Cole's theory makes sense to me, but a major attack in the Green Zone would be hard, considering how fortified/protected the area is. There have been random mortar attacks in the Zone, and car bombs just outside the area, but a major attack that would do major damage, would have to be elaborate and planned to cause much psychological damage to the new Iraqi Government. (i.e. Vietcong attack on the U.S. Embassy, during the Tet Offensive)
