Wednesday, October 12, 2005
This letter to Andrew Sullivan, is one reason why I think Miers will not be sitting on the Supreme Court.|
I think the odds that she will overturn Roe or Affirmative Action are zero-to-way-the-fuck-less-than-zero. And I stand by my prediction that this will be near-catastrophic for the Republican Party. As you have pointed out they have lost the fiscal high ground. They have governed ineffectively. Democrats, OTOH, balanced the budget and cut welfare. They are looking pretty good right about now, aren’t they?It may already be too late, Miers may just be the final nail in the coffin for conservatives. There's no way that this letter-writer is the only conservative that is feeling angry. And when conservatives are angry at Republicans, they don't vote.
I grew up with, was marinated in, and for some reason continue to live deeply among, the 'Southern conservative base'. I've been to the conservative churches, parties, PTA meetings, gatherings, etc. They will ABSOLUTELY sit on their hands in '06 and '08. I think that aspect of this has been way under-explored. If Harry turns out to be a centrist or left-of-center, Republicans are dead meat.
REMEMBER: we only need about 4% of conservatives to sit out, much less vote Democratic, to totally screw up the party. And I think it’ll be more like 20% here in the South. Over the Supreme Court alone.
This is a ticking time bomb, and anyone, including Bush, including Miss Laura, that thinks otherwise, is living in a dream world.